The data suggests caution when backing the Chicago White Sox in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home vs division rival, the Chicago White Sox are just 66-77-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -11.9% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +11.9%.

⚠ Fade Zone
Record66-77-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size143 games
ROI-11.9%
Units Won-17.0u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20147-7-00.0%-4.5%
20155-5-00.0%-4.5%
201613-6-00.0%+30.6%
20175-6-00.0%-13.2%
20188-5-00.0%+17.5%
20192-8-00.0%-61.8%
20208-6-00.0%+9.1%
20215-9-00.0%-31.8%
20221-4-00.0%-61.8%
20238-12-00.0%-23.6%
20244-9-00.0%-41.3%

Why This Trend Exists

The White Sox's struggles as home favorites against division rivals stem from the unique pressure cooker environment that AL Central matchups create at Guaranteed Rate Field. Division games carry heightened intensity where familiarity breeds both contempt and tactical advantages for visiting teams who've studied Chicago's tendencies extensively throughout the season. The White Sox have historically relied heavily on power hitting and starting pitching depth, but division opponents understand these strengths and adjust their game plans accordingly, often employing specialized bullpen usage and defensive alignments that neutralize Chicago's offensive threats. Chicago's home field advantage becomes diluted against division foes because these teams play in similar weather conditions and ballpark dimensions throughout the season, removing the environmental edge that typically benefits home teams against unfamiliar opponents. The White Sox's inconsistent bullpen performance has been particularly exposed in tight division games where late-game execution becomes paramount. Visiting AL Central teams often carry extra motivation when playing in Chicago, viewing road division wins as statement victories. Sharp bettors should consider fading the White Sox as home chalk against division rivals, particularly in series openers where visiting teams are well-rested and prepared. This trend carries the most weight during summer months when division races intensify and every game carries playoff implications.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Chicago White Sox's ATS record as home vs division rival?

The Chicago White Sox have a 66-77-0 ATS record when playing at home against division rivals from 2014-2024. This represents a 46.2% ATS win rate over 143 games.

Is betting on the Chicago White Sox as home vs division rival profitable?

No, betting on the Chicago White Sox at home vs division rivals has not been profitable, showing a -11.9% ROI from 2014-2024. This negative return indicates consistent losses for bettors backing the White Sox in these matchups.

How does this compare to the league average?

The White Sox's 46.2% ATS win rate at home vs division rivals is below the typical 50% break-even point expected in sports betting. The -11.9% ROI significantly underperforms compared to profitable betting strategies.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.