The data suggests caution when backing the Chicago White Sox in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as as favorite, the Chicago White Sox are just 86-343-1 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -61.7% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +61.7%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record86-343-1
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size430 games
ROI-61.7%
Units Won-264.8u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20144-31-00.0%-78.2%
20157-30-00.0%-63.9%
201610-38-00.0%-60.2%
20176-26-00.0%-64.2%
20186-22-10.0%-59.1%
20197-36-00.0%-68.9%
202010-29-00.0%-51.0%
202113-39-00.0%-52.3%
20228-26-00.0%-55.1%
20238-40-00.0%-68.2%
20247-26-00.0%-59.5%

Why This Trend Exists

The White Sox's disastrous performance as favorites stems from a fundamental disconnect between market perception and actual team construction. Chicago has consistently been overvalued by oddsmakers who factor in their offensive potential and occasional star power, but the franchise's chronic pitching depth issues and defensive inconsistencies create a team that struggles to control games when expected to win. The psychological burden of favorite status particularly exposes Chicago's tendency toward complacency and poor situational execution. When laying runs, the White Sox have historically shown a pattern of playing down to inferior competition while their bullpen—often their weakest link—gets exposed in close games where they're expected to dominate. Their offensive approach, built around power rather than manufacturing runs, becomes less effective when pressing to cover spreads against teams willing to play spoiler. The most telling factor is Chicago's inability to separate themselves from weaker opponents, often winning by narrow margins that fail to cover inflated lines. Their inconsistent starting rotation means even favorable matchups can quickly turn competitive. This trend carries the most weight when the White Sox are road favorites against division rivals or when facing teams with nothing to lose late in the season.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Chicago White Sox's ATS record as as favorite?

The Chicago White Sox have an 86-343-1 ATS record as favorites from 2014-2024, covering the spread in only 20.0% of games. This represents one of the worst ATS performances for any team as favorites over this period.

Is betting on the Chicago White Sox as as favorite profitable?

No, betting on the Chicago White Sox as favorites is highly unprofitable with a -61.7% ROI. This means bettors would lose approximately 62 cents for every dollar wagered on the White Sox when favored.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly worse than league average, as most MLB teams as favorites typically cover 45-50% of spreads. The White Sox's 20.0% cover rate as favorites is exceptionally poor and well below any reasonable benchmark.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.