The public often underestimates the Chicago Cubs in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as small underdog (+1 to +3), the Chicago Cubs hold a record of 45-19-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a +34.2% return on investment—meaning a bettor wagering $100 per game would be up $22 over this period.

🔥 Elite Edge
Record45-19-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size64 games
ROI+34.2%
Units Won+21.9u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20144-1-00.0%+52.7%
20153-1-00.0%+43.2%
20164-1-00.0%+52.7%
20176-5-00.0%+4.1%
20181-4-00.0%-61.8%
20194-1-00.0%+52.7%
20202-1-00.0%+27.3%
20212-0-00.0%+90.9%
20226-2-00.0%+43.2%
20236-2-00.0%+43.2%
20247-1-00.0%+67.0%

Why This Trend Exists

The Cubs' exceptional performance as small underdogs stems from a perfect storm of organizational culture and market perception. Chicago's front office has consistently built teams that thrive when expectations are lowered, featuring resilient veteran leadership and deep bullpen depth that becomes crucial in tight games. When oddsmakers view them as slight underdogs, it typically reflects recent struggles or unfavorable matchups that don't account for the Cubs' ability to elevate their play in competitive spots. The psychological element cannot be understated. This franchise has historically responded well to adversity, and small underdog roles often coincide with moments when the team feels disrespected by public perception. Cubs hitters tend to work deeper counts and manufacture runs more effectively when they're not expected to dominate, while their pitching staff has shown remarkable consistency in keeping games close regardless of recent form. The market consistently undervalues Chicago's veteran savvy in these spots, particularly against division rivals where familiarity breeds competitive games. Bettors should target Cubs small underdog opportunities specifically in day games and when they're facing teams with inflated public perception, as these scenarios amplify the value gap that drives this profitable trend.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Chicago Cubs's ATS record as small underdog (+1 to +3)?

The Chicago Cubs have an outstanding 45-19-0 ATS record when favored by small margins (+1 to +3 points) from 2014-2024. This represents a 70.3% ATS win rate over 64 games.

Is betting on the Chicago Cubs as small underdog (+1 to +3) profitable?

Yes, betting on the Cubs as small underdogs has been highly profitable with a 34.2% ROI from 2014-2024. This strong return is supported by their exceptional 45-19 ATS performance in these situations.

How does this compare to the league average?

This 70.3% ATS win rate significantly outperforms the typical league average of around 50% for ATS bets. The Cubs have been exceptionally strong in small underdog situations compared to most MLB teams.

BACK This Trend

This trend shows a historically profitable pattern. Compare odds across sportsbooks to find the best line.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.