Chicago Cubs Large Favorite (-7.5+) Betting Trend

The Cubs' disastrous performance as large favorites reveals a fundamental psychological flaw in how this franchise approaches games they're expected to dominate. Chicago has historically struggled with the weight of expectations, dating back to their championship drought mentality that persisted even after 2016. When installed as massive favorites, the Cubs often display the kind of loose, unfocused play that comes from assuming victory is inevitable. This pattern reflects deeper organizational tendencies around preparation and game management. The Cubs' hitters have consistently shown vulnerability to adjusting their approach against weaker pitching, often trying to do too much rather than working quality at-bats. Their pitching staff, meanwhile, has demonstrated a troubling habit of nibbling around the strike zone when facing inferior lineups, leading to elevated pitch counts and early bullpen usage that compounds problems. The franchise's front office philosophy of building through analytics and matchups also works against them in blowout spots, where over-managing can disrupt natural rhythm and flow. Players pressing to justify large spreads create the exact opposite conditions needed for dominant performances. This trend matters most during interleague play and late-season games against rebuilding teams, when the Cubs' talent advantage appears most pronounced on paper but psychological factors prove most damaging.