The data suggests caution when backing the Chicago Cubs in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as away favorite after a loss, the Chicago Cubs are just 19-78-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -62.6% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +62.6%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record19-78-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size97 games
ROI-62.6%
Units Won-60.7u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20141-4-00.0%-61.8%
20152-4-00.0%-36.4%
20161-7-00.0%-76.1%
20173-8-00.0%-47.9%
20181-12-00.0%-85.3%
20193-6-00.0%-36.4%
20201-8-00.0%-78.8%
20212-6-00.0%-52.3%
20222-8-00.0%-61.8%
20232-8-00.0%-61.8%
20241-7-00.0%-76.1%

Why This Trend Exists

The Cubs' struggles as road favorites following losses stem from a toxic combination of psychological fragility and organizational culture issues that have persisted across multiple roster iterations. When Chicago loses a game, the mental weight of expectations becomes magnified on the road, where they lack the comfort of Wrigley Field's familiar confines and supportive crowd energy. This creates a compound effect where the pressure of being favored away from home after already disappointing in their previous outing overwhelms their ability to execute fundamentally sound baseball. The franchise's historical tendency toward inconsistency, particularly during their championship window years, reveals a team that often played to the level of their competition rather than imposing their will. Road environments naturally amplify this weakness, as visiting teams must generate their own momentum without crowd support. The Cubs have repeatedly shown they struggle to bounce back mentally when carrying the burden of favorite status in hostile territory, leading to flat performances against supposedly inferior opponents. Smart bettors should target Cubs opponents in these spots, especially when the underdog has decent recent form or home field advantage. This trend matters most during summer months when road trips are longest and the psychological toll of travel compounds with performance pressure.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Chicago Cubs's ATS record as away favorite after a loss?

The Chicago Cubs have a 19-78-0 ATS record as away favorites after a loss from 2014-2024, covering the spread in only 19.6% of these situations. This represents 97 total games over the 11-year period.

Is betting on the Chicago Cubs as away favorite after a loss profitable?

No, betting on the Chicago Cubs as away favorites after a loss is extremely unprofitable with a -62.6% ROI. This trend shows consistent losses for bettors backing Chicago in this specific situation.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly worse than typical league averages, which generally hover around 50% ATS for most situational trends. The Cubs' 19.6% cover rate in this spot represents one of the worst situational trends in baseball.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.