Boston Red Sox Medium Underdog (+3.5 to +7) Betting Trend
ATS Record, ROI Analysis & Historical Performance Data (2014-2024)
The public often underestimates the Boston Red Sox in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as medium underdog (+3.5 to +7), the Boston Red Sox hold a record of 126-26-2 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a +58.2% return on investment—meaning a bettor wagering $100 per game would be up $90 over this period.
Year-by-Year Performance
| Season | Record | Win % | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 7-4-0 | 0.0% | +21.5% |
| 2015 | 12-5-1 | 0.0% | +34.8% |
| 2016 | 13-3-0 | 0.0% | +55.1% |
| 2017 | 14-1-0 | 0.0% | +78.2% |
| 2018 | 10-2-0 | 0.0% | +59.1% |
| 2019 | 19-4-0 | 0.0% | +57.7% |
| 2020 | 8-0-0 | 0.0% | +90.9% |
| 2021 | 9-2-1 | 0.0% | +56.2% |
| 2022 | 14-1-0 | 0.0% | +78.2% |
| 2023 | 12-2-0 | 0.0% | +63.6% |
| 2024 | 8-2-0 | 0.0% | +52.7% |
Why This Trend Exists
The Red Sox's dominance as medium underdogs stems from their organizational culture of resilience and their ability to thrive when expectations are lowered. Boston's front office has consistently built teams with veteran leadership and clutch performers who elevate their game when facing adversity. This psychological edge becomes particularly pronounced in the medium underdog range, where the team isn't completely written off but faces enough doubt to fuel their competitive fire. Strategically, Boston's deep roster construction allows them to deploy different tactical approaches when playing from behind in public perception. Their historically strong bullpen depth and ability to manufacture runs in late innings creates value in games where oddsmakers may be overreacting to recent form or opponent strength. The franchise's championship pedigree also instills confidence in players who have experienced high-pressure situations, making them less likely to fold under the weight of being moderate underdogs. The key insight for bettors is recognizing that Boston's medium underdog spots often coincide with market overreactions to short-term struggles or inflated opponent perception. This trend carries the most weight during divisional play and when facing teams coming off impressive performances, as the betting public tends to overvalue recent momentum against Boston's consistent organizational strength.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Boston Red Sox's ATS record as medium underdog (+3.5 to +7)?
The Boston Red Sox have an outstanding 126-26-2 ATS record as medium underdogs (+3.5 to +7) from 2014-2024. This represents an exceptional 82.9% ATS win rate over 154 games in this betting situation.
Is betting on the Boston Red Sox as medium underdog (+3.5 to +7) profitable?
Yes, betting on the Red Sox as medium underdogs has been extremely profitable with a 58.2% ROI from 2014-2024. This means a $100 bettor would have earned $58.20 in profit for every $100 wagered over this period.
How does this compare to the league average?
This performance significantly exceeds league averages, as typical ATS win rates hover around 50% and positive ROI above 10% is considered strong. The Red Sox's 82.9% ATS rate and 58.2% ROI in this spot represents elite-level betting value.
BACK This Trend
This trend shows a historically profitable pattern. Compare odds across sportsbooks to find the best line.
Compare Sportsbook OddsMethodology
All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.