The public often underestimates the Boston Red Sox in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as large underdog (+7.5+), the Boston Red Sox hold a record of 183-10-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a +81.0% return on investment—meaning a bettor wagering $100 per game would be up $156 over this period.

🔥 Elite Edge
Record183-10-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size193 games
ROI+81.0%
Units Won+156.4u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
201411-4-00.0%+40.0%
201518-2-00.0%+71.8%
201617-0-00.0%+90.9%
201716-0-00.0%+90.9%
201813-0-00.0%+90.9%
201916-1-00.0%+79.7%
202022-1-00.0%+82.6%
202116-0-00.0%+90.9%
202222-0-00.0%+90.9%
202312-1-00.0%+76.2%
202420-1-00.0%+81.8%

Why This Trend Exists

The Red Sox's dominance as massive underdogs stems from their organizational culture of resilience and veteran leadership that thrives when expectations are lowest. Boston's front office has consistently built rosters with experienced players who understand how to navigate adversity, creating a team mentality that performs best when written off by oddsmakers. This psychological edge becomes amplified when facing elite opponents, as the pressure shifts entirely to the favored team while Boston plays with house money. The franchise's analytical approach also plays a crucial role in these scenarios. When installed as such heavy underdogs, it typically indicates either key injuries or facing dominant pitching matchups. Boston's coaching staff excels at game-planning around these limitations, often employing unconventional strategies like aggressive baserunning or defensive shifts that can exploit overconfident opponents. Their deep farm system ensures quality depth pieces who step up in these moments. The key insight for bettors is recognizing that Boston's underdog success correlates strongly with their ability to manufacture runs through situational hitting rather than relying on power. This trend matters most during divisional play and playoff races when motivation peaks, particularly in day games following night losses where the team's veteran leadership shines brightest.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Boston Red Sox's ATS record as large underdog (+7.5+)?

The Boston Red Sox have an ATS record of 183-10-0 when they are large underdogs of +7.5 runs or more from 2014-2024. This represents an exceptional 94.8% ATS win rate over this 11-year period.

Is betting on the Boston Red Sox as large underdog (+7.5+) profitable?

Yes, betting on the Red Sox as large underdogs has been extremely profitable with an 81.0% ROI from 2014-2024. This trend has consistently delivered strong returns for bettors who backed Boston in these situations.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance significantly outperforms the league average, as most teams struggle to cover large spreads consistently. A 94.8% ATS win rate with 81% ROI is exceptionally rare in sports betting.

BACK This Trend

This trend shows a historically profitable pattern. Compare odds across sportsbooks to find the best line.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.