The data suggests caution when backing the Baltimore Orioles in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as vs division opponent, the Baltimore Orioles are just 136-152-1 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -9.8% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +9.8%.

⚠ Fade Zone
Record136-152-1
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size289 games
ROI-9.8%
Units Won-28.4u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
201412-9-00.0%+9.1%
201512-12-00.0%-4.5%
201610-9-00.0%+0.5%
201710-20-00.0%-36.4%
201814-13-00.0%-1.0%
201910-19-00.0%-34.2%
20208-15-00.0%-33.6%
202114-16-10.0%-10.9%
202220-11-00.0%+23.2%
20238-14-00.0%-30.6%
202418-14-00.0%+7.4%

Why This Trend Exists

The Orioles' struggles against division opponents stem from the inherent familiarity that breeds tactical disadvantage in the AL East. Baltimore has historically operated with smaller payrolls and less roster depth than powerhouses like the Yankees and Red Sox, making it difficult to adjust when opponents have extensive scouting reports on their personnel. Division rivals see Orioles pitching and hitting approaches 19 times per season, allowing them to exploit weaknesses that other teams might miss in limited exposure. Baltimore's organizational philosophy has emphasized player development over veteran acquisitions, meaning their younger players often face a steeper learning curve against seasoned division competition. The psychological weight of playing "up" against traditionally stronger franchises creates additional pressure, particularly in crucial late-season matchups when playoff positioning is at stake. The recent improvement suggests Baltimore's rebuilt roster may finally have the talent to compete more evenly within the division, but their negative return on investment indicates the betting market still undervalues their opponents' familiarity advantage. This trend matters most during the season's final month when division standings tighten and every game carries playoff implications, as psychological pressure and tactical familiarity reach their peak influence on game outcomes.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Baltimore Orioles's ATS record as vs division opponent?

The Baltimore Orioles have a 136-152-1 ATS record when playing against division opponents from 2014-2024. This translates to a 47.2% ATS win rate over 289 total games.

Is betting on the Baltimore Orioles as vs division opponent profitable?

No, betting on the Baltimore Orioles against division opponents has not been profitable, showing a -9.8% ROI from 2014-2024. This negative return indicates consistent losses for bettors backing the Orioles in divisional matchups.

How does this compare to the league average?

The Orioles' 47.2% ATS win rate against division opponents is below the typical 50% break-even point expected in sports betting. The -9.8% ROI significantly underperforms compared to profitable betting strategies.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.