The data suggests caution when backing the Baltimore Orioles in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home favorite on zero rest, the Baltimore Orioles are just 16-46-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -50.7% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +50.7%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record16-46-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size62 games
ROI-50.7%
Units Won-31.4u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20143-2-00.0%+14.6%
20152-6-00.0%-52.3%
20161-2-00.0%-36.4%
20172-4-00.0%-36.4%
20182-5-00.0%-45.5%
20190-4-00.0%-100.0%
20201-1-00.0%-4.5%
20210-8-00.0%-100.0%
20221-7-00.0%-76.1%
20233-6-00.0%-36.4%
20241-1-00.0%-4.5%

Why This Trend Exists

The Orioles' struggles as home favorites on zero rest stem from a perfect storm of organizational and situational factors that have plagued the franchise for most of the past decade. Baltimore's roster construction during their rebuilding years created a team heavily reliant on young, inconsistent pitching and inexperienced position players who struggled to handle the pressure of being favored. When you combine inexperience with fatigue from playing consecutive days, the mental burden of being expected to win at home becomes magnified. The zero rest element particularly exposes Baltimore's historically thin bullpen depth, forcing overworked relievers into high-leverage situations they're ill-equipped to handle. Home crowds expecting victories from a favored team create additional pressure that younger Orioles squads have consistently failed to convert into performance. The team's analytical approach during their rebuild years often prioritized development over winning, meaning players weren't necessarily motivated by the same factors that drive veteran-heavy contending teams. For bettors, this trend represents one of baseball's most reliable fade opportunities when the Orioles are installed as home chalk after playing the previous day. This pattern matters most during summer months when schedule congestion forces more back-to-back games and the cumulative effect of organizational weaknesses becomes most pronounced.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Baltimore Orioles's ATS record as home favorite on zero rest?

The Baltimore Orioles have gone 16-46-0 against the spread as home favorites on zero rest from 2014-2024. This represents a poor 25.8% ATS win rate over 62 games.

Is betting on the Baltimore Orioles as home favorite on zero rest profitable?

No, betting on the Baltimore Orioles as home favorites on zero rest has been highly unprofitable with a -50.7% ROI. This trend has resulted in consistent losses for bettors over the 11-year period.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly worse than league average, as most teams typically hover around 50% ATS. The Orioles' 25.8% ATS rate in this situation represents one of the worst situational trends in baseball.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.