The data suggests caution when backing the Atlanta Braves in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as away vs division rival, the Atlanta Braves are just 68-81-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -12.9% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +12.9%.

⚠ Fade Zone
Record68-81-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size149 games
ROI-12.9%
Units Won-19.2u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20147-6-00.0%+2.8%
20154-6-00.0%-23.6%
20164-9-00.0%-41.3%
201715-5-00.0%+43.2%
20185-9-00.0%-31.8%
20195-5-00.0%-4.5%
20205-10-00.0%-36.4%
20216-7-00.0%-11.9%
20223-5-00.0%-28.4%
20234-13-00.0%-55.1%
202410-6-00.0%+19.3%

Why This Trend Exists

The Braves' struggles against division rivals on the road stem from several interconnected factors that create a perfect storm for underperformance. NL East opponents know Atlanta's tendencies intimately, having faced them multiple times each season, which allows rival managers to exploit specific weaknesses in their lineup construction and bullpen usage patterns. The Braves have historically relied heavily on their home park advantages at Truist Park, where their power hitters benefit from favorable wind patterns and dimensions, making the transition to unfamiliar ballparks within the division particularly challenging. Atlanta's pitching staff tends to perform inconsistently in hostile division environments, where crowd noise and familiarity breed contempt. The team's analytical approach, while effective overall, becomes predictable against division foes who have extensive video study and can anticipate their strategic decisions. The Braves also struggle with the emotional intensity that comes with division games, often pressing too hard in crucial situations rather than executing their normal game plan. For bettors, this trend suggests fading the Braves as road favorites against division rivals, particularly when the line seems inflated based on their overall talent level. This pattern becomes most critical during September pennant races when division games carry maximum weight and emotional pressure intensifies.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Atlanta Braves's ATS record as away vs division rival?

The Atlanta Braves have a 68-81-0 ATS record when playing as the away team against division rivals from 2014-2024. This represents a 45.6% ATS win rate over 149 games.

Is betting on the Atlanta Braves as away vs division rival profitable?

No, betting on the Atlanta Braves as the away team vs division rivals is not profitable. The team has produced a -12.9% ROI with a 0.0% win rate against the spread in this situation.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly below the league average of approximately 50% ATS. The Braves' 45.6% ATS rate and negative ROI indicate consistent underperformance in away division rivalry games.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.