The data suggests caution when backing the Atlanta Braves in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as away favorite, the Atlanta Braves are just 48-211-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -64.6% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +64.6%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record48-211-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size259 games
ROI-64.6%
Units Won-167.4u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20142-14-00.0%-76.1%
20156-20-00.0%-55.9%
20166-24-00.0%-61.8%
20178-15-00.0%-33.6%
20184-26-00.0%-74.5%
20195-13-00.0%-47.0%
20205-21-00.0%-63.3%
20212-17-00.0%-79.9%
20221-18-00.0%-90.0%
20233-21-00.0%-76.1%
20246-22-00.0%-59.1%

Why This Trend Exists

The Braves' struggles as road favorites stem from a fundamental disconnect between their home-field advantages and the pressures of playing away from Atlanta. Truist Park's unique dimensions and familiar conditions have historically amplified the team's offensive capabilities, particularly their power hitting approach that thrives on consistent atmospheric conditions and sightlines. When thrust into the role of road favorites, the Braves face elevated expectations without these environmental benefits, creating a psychological burden that manifests in underperformance relative to betting lines. Atlanta's organizational philosophy has long emphasized developing players who excel in their home environment, from pitchers who benefit from specific mound conditions to hitters comfortable with their ballpark's dimensions. This specialization becomes a liability when the team is expected to dominate on unfamiliar turf, as oddsmakers often overvalue their home success when setting road lines. The trend intensifies when the Braves face teams with strong home-field cultures, particularly in venues known for hostile atmospheres. Smart bettors should target Atlanta road favorites against teams with passionate fan bases or unique ballpark characteristics, especially during day games following night games when travel fatigue compounds the psychological pressure. This pattern matters most during divisional road series where familiarity breeds contempt and rival crowds create maximum hostile environments.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Atlanta Braves's ATS record as away favorite?

The Atlanta Braves have a 48-211-0 ATS record as away favorites from 2014-2024, covering the spread in only 18.5% of games. This represents one of the worst ATS performances for any team in this specific situation.

Is betting on the Atlanta Braves as away favorite profitable?

No, betting on the Atlanta Braves as away favorites is extremely unprofitable with a -64.6% ROI over the past decade. A $100 bet on every game would have resulted in significant losses totaling approximately $646.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is drastically worse than the league average, as away favorites typically cover around 45-50% of the time. The Braves' 18.5% cover rate as away favorites is historically poor and well below expected norms.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.