The data suggests caution when backing the Arizona Diamondbacks in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home favorite on zero rest, the Arizona Diamondbacks are just 14-42-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -52.3% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +52.3%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record14-42-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size56 games
ROI-52.3%
Units Won-29.3u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20142-3-00.0%-23.6%
20153-4-00.0%-18.2%
20160-3-00.0%-100.0%
20171-5-00.0%-68.2%
20180-4-00.0%-100.0%
20190-3-00.0%-100.0%
20202-4-00.0%-36.4%
20213-4-00.0%-18.2%
20221-7-00.0%-76.1%
20231-3-00.0%-52.3%
20241-2-00.0%-36.4%

Why This Trend Exists

The Diamondbacks' struggles as home favorites on zero rest stem from a combination of organizational depth issues and the unique challenges of desert baseball. Arizona has historically lacked the bullpen depth needed to handle back-to-back games effectively, particularly when facing the pressure of being favored at home. The team's relief corps often gets overextended in tight games, leaving them vulnerable the following day when expectations are highest. Chase Field's extreme conditions amplify these problems. The ballpark's retractable roof and air conditioning create an artificial environment that can mask fatigue symptoms until players step onto the field. Additionally, Arizona's offense has traditionally relied on power hitters who struggle more than contact hitters when dealing with fatigue, making their run production inconsistent in these spots. The psychological element cannot be ignored either. Home favorites carry public expectations, and Arizona players have shown a pattern of pressing in these situations, particularly after emotional wins or losses that left them physically drained. The team's younger players especially struggle with the mental adjustment required when transitioning from underdog mentality to favorite status overnight. This trend carries the most weight during summer months when desert heat compounds fatigue issues and during crucial divisional matchups where emotional investment runs highest.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Arizona Diamondbacks's ATS record as home favorite on zero rest?

The Arizona Diamondbacks have a 14-42-0 ATS record as home favorites on zero rest from 2014-2024. This translates to a 25.0% ATS win rate over 56 games.

Is betting on the Arizona Diamondbacks as home favorite on zero rest profitable?

No, betting on the Arizona Diamondbacks as home favorites on zero rest is not profitable. This strategy has produced a -52.3% ROI, meaning bettors would lose over half their investment following this trend.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly worse than league average. Most teams perform around 50% ATS over large samples, making Arizona's 25.0% ATS rate in this situation exceptionally poor for bettors.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.