The data suggests caution when backing the Arizona Diamondbacks in this spot. Since 2014, when playing as home favorite after a loss, the Arizona Diamondbacks are just 18-108-0 against the spread. That's a 0.0% win rate and a -72.7% ROI. Sharp bettors have found value fading this situation—the opposite side would have returned +72.7%.

🚫 Strong Fade
Record18-108-0
Win Rate0.0%
Sample Size126 games
ROI-72.7%
Units Won-91.6u
Time Period2014-2024

Year-by-Year Performance

SeasonRecordWin %ROI
20142-10-00.0%-68.2%
20152-5-00.0%-45.5%
20160-13-00.0%-100.0%
20172-10-00.0%-68.2%
20181-5-00.0%-68.2%
20190-12-00.0%-100.0%
20201-13-00.0%-86.4%
20216-9-00.0%-23.6%
20222-12-00.0%-72.7%
20231-11-00.0%-84.1%
20241-8-00.0%-78.8%

Why This Trend Exists

The Diamondbacks' catastrophic performance as home favorites following losses reveals a franchise plagued by fragile confidence and inconsistent roster construction throughout much of this sample period. Arizona's organizational culture during these years often lacked the veteran leadership and mental toughness needed to bounce back from adversity, particularly when elevated expectations came with home favorite status. The team's pitching staff historically struggled with consistency, making it difficult to provide the stability required after demoralizing defeats. Arizona's hitters have shown a troubling tendency to press when carrying the burden of being favored at Chase Field, especially coming off losses where confidence was already shaken. The desert heat and unique playing conditions at their home ballpark can amplify these psychological pressures, as players feel additional weight to perform for their home crowd after disappointing them previously. The franchise's rebuilding phases coincided with many of these situations, creating a perfect storm of inexperience meeting elevated expectations. Bettors should view Arizona home favorites after losses as prime fade opportunities, particularly when the betting line suggests public backing of the "bounce-back" narrative. This trend carries the most significance during mid-season stretches when the Diamondbacks are struggling with consistency but still drawing favorable odds due to home field advantage.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Arizona Diamondbacks's ATS record as home favorite after a loss?

The Arizona Diamondbacks have an 18-108-0 ATS record as home favorites after a loss from 2014-2024. This translates to a 0.0% win rate against the spread in this situation.

Is betting on the Arizona Diamondbacks as home favorite after a loss profitable?

No, betting on the Arizona Diamondbacks as home favorites after a loss is not profitable, with a -72.7% ROI. This represents one of the worst betting trends in baseball over the past decade.

How does this compare to the league average?

This performance is significantly worse than league average, as most teams typically cover around 50% of spreads. The Diamondbacks' 0.0% ATS rate in this situation is an extreme outlier compared to normal MLB betting expectations.

FADE This Trend

The data suggests fading this situation has been profitable. Compare odds to find the best value on the other side.

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Methodology

All trends in The Archives are calculated from official game results and closing point spreads from 2014 to 2024. ROI assumes a flat $100 bet at standard -110 juice. Win rate is calculated as wins divided by total decisions (pushes excluded). A minimum of 10 games is required for a trend to be published. Data is sourced from The Odds API and verified against official league records.